Violent crime trends – ambulance call outs for assault in Islington

Ambulance call out for assaultI lost count of the number of times i had to call 999 for an ambluance to help someone who was bleeding or in trouble on the street in Kings Cross.  The London data store has yielded this data:

'Count of all Assault incidents and injuries recorded by London Ambulance Service, per month, per ward in London from December 2007 to November 2009.'

The bar chart on the left shows the aggregate over that two year period.  Caledonian ward is in red.  Below is a line chart of the three month rolling average of ambulance calls for assault in some of the more assaulty wards – this is a way of adjusting for seasonal variation and help show trends more reliably. 

I'm not a proper statto (if only the late Phil Jeffries was still with us) so it would be great if soemone could check my numbers, but the trend for Caledonian ward isn't great – the average per month has steadily increased over the last two years from ten per month to about 14 per month.  But as i understood it crime has fallen radically over this period.  So i am a bit confused.

I don't know why this is – one thing that the council and police need to examine carefully is whether this is related to the increasing nuAssault trendsmber of premises selling alcohol in Kings Cross or a statistical aberration.  They have access to much more detailed data and presumably profressional analysts.  All views welcome in the comments.

UPDATE – 4 February

The Gazette have run with this story today after speaking with me 48 hours ago. 

Almost a week after this original blog post, the police come back to me with this quote:

'Re increase in assaults in Islington according to recently released LAS data:
Of all violent incidents, which include assaults, reported to police in Islington, there was a two percent increase in 2009 compared to 2008.
We continue to do everything we can to tackle violent crime. Since April 2009, most serious violence has gone down by 11 percent and serious youth violence by 28 percent.
We encourage all victims of violent crime to come forward so that we can take action to bring the offenders to justice.
– Not all crimes are reported to police which would account for the difference in figures.

Re increase in assaults in Caledonian ward according to recently released LAS data:
During the period 2009 compared to 2008, there was a four percent increase in violent crime reported to police in Caledonian ward. During this time police observed an increase in crime and anti-social behaviour by groups of young people. In response to this, a dispersal zone was put in place in Caledonian Road in 2009. This appears to have had a positive effect with fewer problems of this kind being reported to police.
We continue to do everything we can to tackle violent crime and bring offenders to justice. Since April 2009, violent crime has gone down by 11 percent in Islington which includes a 28 percent reduction in serious youth violence.
– Not all crimes are reported to police which would account for any difference in figures.

Finsbury Park 385
St Mary's 306
Bunhill 277
Caledonian 265
Barnsbury 251
Clerkenwell 228
Holloway 224
Junction 224
Tollington 212
Mildmay 193
St Peter's 186
Highbury West 160
St George's 157
Canonbury 151
Hillrise 136
Highbury East


About William Perrin

Active in Kings Cross London and South Oxfordshire, founder of Talk About Local, helping people find a voice online and a trustee of The Indigo Trust , Good Things Foundation and ThreeSixtyGiving as well as Connect8.
This entry was posted in Anti Social Behaviour, Crime etc. Bookmark the permalink.

1 Response to Violent crime trends – ambulance call outs for assault in Islington

  1. Philip John says:

    Great stuff! My immediate thought is that assault is only one type of crime and one that is probably less prominent than burglary, car-related crime. There’s a lot more crime to make up the overall crime figure, if that’s the one you say has fallen. My next step would be to look at the breakdown of that overall crime figure by type. It may be that one or a few types of crime have fallen dramatically and that has skewed the overall figure.

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